Thursday, December 26,
2002 By Steven
Milloy
It’s time to pay homage to the year’s
outstanding junk science performances. Without further ado,
the envelope, please…
Best performance by Swedish meatballs. Swedish
scientists alarmed us in April that baking and frying
high-carbohydrate foods, like potatoes and bread, formed
acrylamide, a substance that has been linked with cancer in
laboratory animal experiments.
What they didn’t say was that even if lab
animal experiments were a good predictor of cancer risk in
humans -- a HUGE leap of faith -- someone of average
bodyweight would have to eat 35,000 potato chips (about 62.5
pounds) per day for life to get an equivalent dose of
acrylamide as the lab animals!
You might not be able to eat just one Lays
potato chip, but 35,000?
Best performance supporting the Swedish
meatballs. The World Health Organization held in June an
"urgent" meeting where acrylamide was called a "major
concern." Further study was recommended, but no warning to
consumers was issued -- yet.
During the three days the W.H.O. “fiddled”
with acrylamide, more than 16,000 third-world children died
largely preventable deaths caused by food and water
contaminated with bacteria.
WHO knows what its priorities are?
Most embarrassing performance by “reputable”
experts. The National Academy of Sciences’ Institute of
Medicine (IOM) announced in July that no amounts of margarine,
vegetable shortening, dairy products, pastries, crackers,
fried foods and breast milk are safe to eat.
These foods and others contain trans fatty
acids, vegetable oils altered to be firm at room temperature.
Trans fats, according to the IOM, raise blood levels of LDL
cholesterol -- supposedly, the "bad" cholesterol --
and allegedly increase the risk of coronary heart disease.
But none of the six studies of human
populations consuming trans fats come close to linking
trans fats with heart disease risk. No doubt this is why the
IOM barely even mentioned their existence in its report and
didn't rely on them in the slightest to support its
conclusion.
Performance most likely to sent enviros into a
tizzy.
The New York Times editorialized in
December that the insecticide DDT should be used in Africa to
reduce the death toll from malaria -- quite a welcome change
from the Times’ 30 years of DDT fearmongering. Sadly,
the turnaround by the influential newspaper comes too late for
the 60-90 million people in the third world -- mostly children
-- who died from malaria during those 30 years. No doubt the
Times’ editorial will send its environmental activist
allies into orbit as they continue to urge a total ban on DDT
use.
Most underreported global warming story. Hardly
a day goes by without a media report on the dire consequences
of alleged manmade global warming and the attendant need for
an international treaty to control greenhouse gas
emissions.
But when 18 scientists who believe in
manmade global warming wrote in the Nov. 1 issue of the major
journal Science that no treaty will prevent global
warming, nary a word was reported. The scientists also
dismissed the near-term prospects for alternatives to burning
coal, oil and gas.
I commented at the time that the “gloomy
assessment of regulatory and technology-based solutions might
just encourage policy makers to pay more attention to the junk
science underlying the fantasy of manmade global warming.”
That observation presumed, of course, that
such a significant assessment by such respected sources in
such a prominent publication would be reported by someone in
the media. Oh well…
Best performance in statistical malpractice.
Researchers garnered national headlines in April with a report
that 1,400 college students die every year from excessive
drinking.
The estimate was derived by assuming that
because college students constitute 31 percent of the
population of 18-24 year olds, they also account for 31
percent of the alcohol-related deaths in that age group.
The simplistic reasoning -- which would
merit an “F” in an undergraduate statistics course -- is
equivalent to assuming that because women constitute about
half of the population, they commit half of all crime. In
fact, men commit more than 75 percent of crime.
What kind of researcher would commit such a
flagrant statistical foul? It was Boston University’s Ralph
Hingson, who moonlights as a board member of Mothers Against
Drunk Driving -- a formerly laudable activist group whose new
mission seems to be more akin to “Mothers Against Drinking of
Any Kind.”
Most shameful exploitation of a tragedy. Gun
control activists exploited the Washington, D.C.-area sniper
spree by calling for “ballistic fingerprinting” of guns before
sale. Mandatory pre-sale ballistic fingerprinting, they hoped,
might lead to reduced gun sales and even national gun
registration.
The activists ignored the failure of
existing pre-sale ballistics fingerprinting programs in
Maryland and New York to lead to a single conviction. A report
by California state ballistics experts -- and hushed up by
California’s pro-gun control attorney general -- concluded
that pre-sale ballistic fingerprinting was impractical.
Moreover, Americans already own more than 200 million guns;
those won't be included in any ballistics database.
It’s no wonder the gun-controllers tried to
take advantage of public panic. Those are this year’s junk
science winners (weeners?). Have a great 2003 and stay tuned
for more next year.
Steven Milloy is the publisher
ofJunkScience.com , an
adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute and the author of
Junk
Science Judo: Self-defense Against Health Scares and Scams
(Cato Institute, 2001)
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